Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms had the best Sure worth on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Polymarket odds at 13.4% in a snapshot taken at this time (October 5).
That made the community the leading-priced consequence amongst listed contracts forward of the October 9 announcement, not a probable winner by market pricing, and never an official Nobel Committee sign.
(SOURCE: Nobel Peace Prize Polymarket Odds)
The corresponding No worth was 86.6%. Polymarket’s market abstract described the ERR worth as fluctuating roughly between 13% and 17% forward of the announcement; these figures mirror completely different closing dates, whereas 13.4% is the worth within the timestamped snapshot.
Save the Kids is at present second, priced at 8%, whereas President Trump sits at simply 1%, a wild-horse guess with over $5.7M in quantity, making up a good chunk of the full $26.7M quantity.
Nobel Peace Prize Polymarket Odds: What Does the 13.4% Value Imply?
A Polymarket worth represents an implied likelihood based mostly on buying and selling in that contract, not a ballot or a committee forecast. At 13.4%, the Sure worth signifies how the market valued that consequence on the time of the snapshot; it doesn’t assure that the outcome will happen.
The ERR contract was open, with $67,611 in market quantity and a 24-hour change of -1.8 proportion factors. Throughout the occasion, Polymarket recorded $26,089,225 in complete quantity and $1,602,120 in liquidity, however these event-wide figures don’t imply the identical quantity was accessible to commerce on the ERR consequence.
Underneath the market guidelines, settlement follows the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s first official announcement. The occasion was open when the info was retrieved and had an April 1, 2027 finish date. As with different Polymarket political-outcome costs, the displayed likelihood is a market snapshot formed by buying and selling circumstances, not an official forecast.
Have a Intestine Feeling on the Upcoming Nobel Peace Prize? It Pays on Polymarket
A Main Consequence will not be a Dominant Favourite, Simply But
I’m formally nominating Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) for the Nobel Peace Prize.
No President in Historical past has ended the identical battle so many occasions.
Our Pricey Chief has ended the battle with Iran no less than 38 occasions by CNN’s rely.
No President has ever completed this earlier than.
And he…
— Hunter Biden (@HunterBiden) July 2, 2026
The opposite listed Sure costs underscore how extensively the market’s pricing was unfold. Save the Kids stood at 7.9%, Mykola Kuleba at 6.5%, the Worldwide Court docket of Justice at 6.3%, the Committee to Shield Journalists at 5.6%, and Yulia Navalnaya at 4.7%.
That hole put Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms on the high of the listed outcomes, however the 13.4% Sure worth nonetheless left the end result properly beneath a fair probability.
The sphere’s unfold resembles different Polymarket markets with competing political outcomes: the highest-priced contract can lead with out commanding a majority of the market’s implied likelihood.
Market Pricing is Not Nobel Committee Steerage
The Norwegian Nobel Committee determines and pronounces the prize winner. The Polymarket snapshot offers no official shortlist, affirmation of a nomination, or endorsement from the committee, so the ERRs’ place available on the market shouldn’t be learn as proof of inside info or formal recognition.
The market is helpful as a view of how merchants worth a set of attainable outcomes, not as an alternative choice to info from the establishment making the choice. Different prediction-market odds for security talks supply a separate instance of why contract costs must be distinguished from confirmed real-world outcomes.
The October 5 determine is a timestamped studying; costs can change as orders and buying and selling exercise shift. It’s neither a assure, a ballot outcome, nor an official Nobel sign. That is informational market evaluation, not monetary or betting recommendation.
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