Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai gave a light-weight, oblique response to the rising dialogue about Gemini 3, Google’s subsequent main language mannequin – and it had main implications for predictions markets on Polymarket.
The remark got here as hypothesis intensified on Polymarket, the place merchants now estimate a 69% likelihood that Google will launch the mannequin on November 22.
Prediction markets are betting on Gemini 3 launch subsequent week $goog pic.twitter.com/cyvrJSMp62
— Alphabetting (@wintermoat) November 14, 2025
Polymarket has develop into the most important prediction platform for betting on real-world occasions. Customers put cash on every little thing from product launch dates and Bitcoin (BTC) value swings to election outcomes and Federal Reserve choices.
The market has was a spot the place merchants attempt to value main tech strikes earlier than they occur and Gemini 3 is the newest focus.
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What Does Sundar Pichai’s “Pondering Face” Emoji Sign About Gemini 3?
Contributors commerce occasion contracts utilizing cryptocurrency. The platform not too long ago raised $2Bn from Intercontinental Alternate (ICE), the father or mother firm of the New York Inventory Alternate, bringing its valuation to $9Bn.
Prediction markets are additionally gaining consideration at Google. The corporate has confirmed that Google Finance will quickly show knowledge from Polymarket and Kalshi, giving customers a strategy to examine market-based possibilities and see how merchants are pricing real-world occasions.
With hypothesis rising round a doable Gemini 3 launch subsequent week, Sundar Pichai saved his response transient. He posted two “pondering face” emojis on X and supplied no additional rationalization.
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) November 14, 2025
His quick reply indicators that he’s holding again on particulars, prone to keep away from including to the rising hype.
Nonetheless, the upcoming launch issues for Google. The corporate is beneath stress to slender the space between itself and companies that at present lead the AI area, particularly OpenAI.
The broader trade is watching this launch with actual curiosity, as a result of the response to Gemini 3 will form how severely Google can compete on the high stage.
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How Dependable Are Prediction Markets In comparison with Polls and Professional Forecasts?
Enterprise Insider and different retailers report that the mannequin is anticipated earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
They are saying Google is aiming for higher coding output, stronger reasoning expertise, and extra refined multimedia era.
The replace can be anticipated to incorporate an improved model of the corporate’s Nano Banana picture system.
Pichai has already stated that Gemini 3 will arrive this 12 months. He has framed it as a part of Google’s push to slender the space with OpenAI after a protracted stretch when ChatGPT dominated public consideration.
That brings the headline query into focus: are prediction markets open to affect from high-profile figures?
Twenty years of educational analysis have proven that prediction markets usually produce pretty correct forecasts. In lots of instances, they’ve even outperformed polls and knowledgeable surveys.
However newer research level to a danger. They present {that a} single giant commerce, positioned on the proper second, can shift the value in automated-market-maker methods in ways in which don’t absolutely unwind.
The impact can stick, particularly when different merchants deal with that value transfer as actual data as an alternative of noise.
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The submit Google CEO Responds to Polymarket Wager: Are Prediction Markets Susceptible To Superstar Manipulation? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
